Twins hope to continue offensive onslaught in Kansas City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their offense producing runs at an incredible rate, the Minnesota Twins set their sights on a fifth straight victory as well as a three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals when the American League Central foes square off this afternoon at Kauffman Stadium.

After overwhelming the Royals by a 19-1 count in Monday's opener of this set, the Twins continued their recent scoring binge in another lopsided win last night. Minnesota pounded out 19 hits in its 11-2 rout of the Royals, with Danny Valencia going 4-for-5 with three RBI to lead the charge.

Joe Mauer, coming off a 5-for-5, seven-RBI performance in Monday's game, doubled twice and knocked in a pair of runs to help the Twins improve to 9-3 since the All-Star break. Michael Cuddyer and J.J. Hardy each contributed three hits and two RBI to Tuesday's triumph.

The Twins entered this series off a 10-4 win at Baltimore on Sunday, with yesterday's result marking the first team the club has scored in double digits three straight times since June 11-13, 1967.

"I think [the Twins are] the best hitting team in the American League," said Royals pitcher Bruce Chen after Tuesday's test. "They're good. I know they have some guys hurt, but they're still pretty good. I felt like I made good pitches."

Chen (5-5) allowed the first six Minnesota runs and a total of 11 hits over the first 5 1/3 innings to take the loss. His counterpart, Carl Pavano, was considerably better, as the resurgent right-hander limited the Royals to one run in five innings of work in posting his eighth straight winning decision.

Pavano is now 13-6 on the season, tied with the New York Yankees' CC Sabathia and Tampa Bay's David Price for the most wins in the AL.

Valencia has been on quite a roll as well lately. The rookie infielder had four hits, including a grand slam, in Monday's contest and has gone 8-for-9 with seven RBI so far in the series.

"It's been a great time for me," he said. "It's been a great time for the team. We've been winning and you couldn't ask for anything more.

Minnesota remained one game behind the Chicago White Sox, who defeated Seattle on Tuesday, in the race for first place in the AL Central with last night's verdict.

The Twins go for the sweep today behind Brian Duensing, who showed in his first 2010 start he can be as effective in that role as he's been for the team in relief this season.

In his first outing since being inserted into the Minnesota rotation in place of a struggling Nick Blackburn, Duensing held Baltimore to a run on four hits over five solid innings this past Friday. He left the game with a 2-1 lead, but wound up with a no-decision when the Orioles scored against the Twins' bullpen later on.

Prior to that performance, Duensing compiled a 3-1 record with a sensational 1.67 earned run average in 39 relief appearances for the year. The left-hander also did well when called upon to start in 2009, going 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in nine such assignments, and beat the Royals by tossing five innings of two-run ball at Kauffman Stadium last August.

In eight overall encounters with Kansas City, Duensing is 2-0 with a 4.85 ERA.

The Royals hand the ball to Brian Bannister today and hope the inconsistent right-hander can continue his usual success in day games. The 29-year-old is 4-1 with a very solid 3.05 ERA in seven afternoon starts this season, compared to a 2-6 mark and 7.10 ERA at night, and sports an excellent 21-9 overall record in the day over the course of his career.

Bannister enters this afternoon's tilt in a slump, however, having lost in three consecutive starts and producing a subpar 0-4 record and 7.07 ERA over his last five mound trips. He's permitted four runs or more in each of those games.

The former University of Southern California standout did best the Twins at Kauffman Stadium on April 25 -- a game which took place in the day -- by yielding two runs over 6 1/3 innings. Lifetime against Minnesota, Bannister is 4-4 with a 4.09 ERA over 11 starts.

Kansas City has now lost five of its last six games and continues to have trouble against the Twins. Minnesota is 8-3 against the Royals this year and has taken 16 of the last 20 overall meetings between the teams. The Twins are also 18-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

El Duque expected to throw Tuesday

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- New York Mets pitcher Orlando Hernandez, sidelined at spring training because of arthritis in his neck, is expected to resume throwing on Tuesday.

Hernandez received a cortisone shot Thursday after leaving camp and returning to New York to have his neck examined. The 41-year-old right-hander is penciled in as the team's No. 2 starter behind Tom Glavine.

El Duque's health is a major issue for the Mets, who won the NL East in 2007 and came within one victory of the World Series. Their aging and unsettled rotation is a big question mark this year.

MySportsbook.com has the Mets as -110 favorites to repeat as NL East champions odds. 

Hernandez went 11-11 with a 4.66 ERA last season, including 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 20 starts after the Mets acquired him from Arizona in late May. But he missed the playoffs because of a torn calf muscle.

New York already is without Pedro Martinez, out until at least midseason following rotator cuff surgery. Among those competing for starting jobs are prospects Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Jason Vargas, plus veterans Chan Ho Park, Jorge Sosa and Aaron Sele.

Notes: Mets manager Willie Randolph is excited about two new utility players he could have on his bench: Damion Easley and David Newhan. ''Their value is really all over the place,'' Randolph said. Easley can play anywhere in the infield and could be used as an emergency outfielder, though Randolph said he would prefer to keep the veteran in the infield. Newhan, meanwhile, can play second base, third or any outfield position for the Mets. ''I love versatility,'' Randolph said. ''I love guys that can give me options when I need them to step in.''

Additional baseball lines and World Series odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.