Points Warns Effort For Losing

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"Our mental approach to the game was much, much better to start the game, especially on the defensive end," said Afflalo, who also blocked two shots.

 

(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You have to figure the loss of All-Star big man Al Horford will eventually catch up to the Atlanta Hawks. So far, however, Atlanta has kept its head above water and will try to finish a four-game homestand in perfect fashion when they host Jamal Crawford and the Portland Trail Blazers tonight at Philips Arena.

 

Crawford, traditionally one of the NBA's top sixth men, averaged 16.1 points for the Hawks over the previous two seasons before signing with the Blazers as a free agent. The guard, who is making his first trip back to the ATL, is scoring at a lesser clip this season (12.0 ppg) and has been struggling recently, netting just 21 points in his last three games.

 

Nicolas Batum added 19 points and six boards for Portland, which will finish its long trek with visits to Toronto and Detroit after tonight. Gerald Wallace tallied 14 points and seven rebounds.

 

In Atlanta's most recent outing on Monday, Josh Smith poured in 28 points and grabbed 15 rebounds as the Hawks continued to surge with a 93-84 victory over the Toronto Raptors.

 

"I think I'm in a different state of mind," Smith said. "I'm playing as hard as I've ever played."

 

Their last three victories, against admittedly inferior competition in Charlotte, Minnesota and the Raptors, have come despite the fact they've played without Horford, who will be out for the next three to four months because of torn pec suffered last week.

 

(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pistons forward Tayshaun Prince has scored 20 points in back-to-back contests but it hasn't been enough to lift his team to victory. Perhaps a third time will be a charm when Detroit takes on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at Target Center. Prince is averaging 10.5 points this season and has scored in double figures over the last four games. He delivered his second straight 20-point effort in Tuesday's 97-80 loss at Houston, while Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckey added 18 and 16 points, respectively, in defeat.

 

Prince posted two steals for 400 in his career and needs one block for 400. Greg Monroe had only four points and grabbed a team-best 11 rebounds. The Pistons, who are last in the Central Division, have lost eight of their last nine games and fell to 1-6 as the visitor this season. They are averaging a league-low 85.0 points per game and have one of the worst records in the NBA at 3-11.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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